Using Math to Obfuscate -- Observations from Finance
The usual narrative suggests that the new mathematical tools of modern finance were like the wings that Daedalus gave Icarus. The people who put these tools to work soared too high and crashed. In two posts, here and here, Tim Johnson notes that two government investigations (one in the UK, the other in the US) tell a different tale. People in finance used math to hide what they were doing.
Why Information Grows
Anybody interested in the future of mathematical theory in economics should read Cesar Hidalgo’s book Why Information Grows. There are many things to like about this lucid account of the evolution of our scientific understanding of information. One of the most important may be the simplest. It illustrates what it means to think like a physicist. Thinking like a physicist is very different from using such tools from physics as partial differential equations.
The Norms of Politics: Ferguson and Ehrlich
If we broaden the frame from mathiness narrowly defined and look for academics who are guided by the norms of politics instead of the norms of science, it is not hard to find examples from both ends of the political spectrum. No matter which end they come from, they can bring science to a halt. If you ever want to reach a scientific consensus about anything–whether wage growth in the UK has been positive or negative, whether England even exists–you will not want to invite either Niall Ferguson or Paul Ehrlich into the discussion.
Recapping: Science, Politics, and Mathiness
It might be helpful to pull back from some of the specifics in the instances of mathiness that I’ve cited in recent posts and recap the background motivation, which springs from concern about the interaction between science and politics. I. There are two different styles of discourse–the discourse of politics and the discourse of science. They are supported by different norms about good ethical behavior and acceptable professional conduct. A. Reputation
The Assumptions in Growth Theory
Dietz Vollrath has a new post that goes a long way toward clarifying the battle lines in the fight over the foundations of growth theory. If you haven’t read it, go read it now, then come back. Any attempt I might make to summarize it here will only add noise. The trilemma he lays out is crystal clear. He acknowledges conversations with Pietro Peretto, who apparently deserves some of the credit for the distilled clarity of the post.